Today’s GBP to USD exchange rate outlook retains a negative bias ahead of the all-important NF Payrolls release. We take a look at the latest Pound to US Dollar conversion forecast and its technical analysis.
The GBP/USD exchange rate chart reacted to interesting news from both sides of the Atlantic during Thursday’s session on the FX markets.
On the UK side, the BOE Monetary Policy Committee voted to reduce the official bank rate to 0.25%, which did not take traders by surprise.
On the North American continent, the unemployment claims were higher-than-expected but the key number was always going to Friday’s NFP.
Trading the NFP is always very interesting.
Latest Live British Pound/US Dollar Exchange Rates
On Sunday the Pound to US Dollar exchange rate (GBP/USD) converts at 1.307
The us dollar conversion rate (against pound) is quoted at 0.765 GBP/USD.
FX markets see the us dollar vs euro exchange rate converting at 0.902.
The USD to CHF exchange rate converts at 0.981 today.
NB: the forex rates mentioned above, revised as of 7th Aug 2016, are inter-bank prices that will require a margin from your bank. Foreign exchange brokers can save up to 5% on international payments in comparison to the banks.
Where to now for the pound to dollar exchange rate?
With the British Pound falling against the US Dollar yesterday quite aggressively, we may have some sort of price consolidation around the bottom line at 1.3100 on the GBPUSD, mostly due to the NFP.
Once the numbers come out, aggressive movement is forecast.
From a technical analysis point of view, the overall chances for a stronger US Dollar are visible on the GBP/USD and EUR/USD charts.
1.3400 turned out to be a very strong resistance level and without the proper fundamentals backing a bullish movement, this level may become a thing of the past.
1.3200 is another decent resistance level, even though I do not expect it to last for long.
The British Pound is getting hit harder and harder, and based on the overall movement, there is a 65% chance for the GBPUSD to fall even lower than where we are at right now.
The only way for this movement not to take place is for the NFP to come out pretty bad, and I have a few doubts about that.
Will this Friday create a change in the trend?
I very much doubt this, but when trading FX you have to expect the unexpected.
On the Daily chart we are in a horizontal trend since mid July and, finding ourselves right at the bottom of it is a good incentive for the bearish traders to take the pair rate value even lower.
On the 4 HR chart, just like the Daily one, the overall trend is bearish so both time frames point towards a weaker British Pound.
It seems that we may have a stronger NFP than July. My only problem is that the difference is quite high.
The previous NFP value was 287k and now expectations are at around 180k. There is a 107k difference, which, by any standard, is high.
Even though I do not expect the prediction to be exact, we must keep an eye on how big today’s NFP is in comparison to the last one.
Even though the predicted value may not be this good, so long as it is much lower than the one from last month, it’s enough to take the GBPUSD towards 1.3000.
Overall I remain bearish on the GBPUSD and do not expect ro change my view unless I see the price over the strong resistance level at 1.3400.
In order to have a back-up, the 45⁰ trend line is a good feedback provider on the strength of the NFP movement, because, for certain, we will see high volatility and we must cover ourselves from unexpected movement.
Keep a close eye today on the GBPUSD, because there is a high probability for the price to break this horizontal channel!
Courtesy : exchangerates.org.uk